Proposing a neural network model to predict time and cost claims in construction projects

Abstract

Despite broad improvements in construction management, claims still are an inseparable part of many con-struction projects. Due to huge cases of claim in construction industry, this study argues that claim management is a significant factor in construction projects success. In this study, the most possible causes of these emerging claims are identified and statistically ranked by Probability-Impact Matrix. Subsequently, by classifying claims in different cases, the most important ones are ranked in order to achieve a better understanding of claim management in each project. In this regard, a new index is defined, being able to be applied in a variety of projects with different time and cost values, to calculate the amount of possible claims in each project along with related ratios with respect to the cost and time of each claim. This study introduces a new model to predict the frequency of claims in construction projects. By using the proposed model, the rate of possible claims in each project can be obtained. This model is validated by applying it into fitting case studies in Iran construction industry.

Keyword : claim management, risk management, artificial neural networks, construction industry, project management