Balancing public and private interests through optimization of concession agreement design for user-pay PPP projects
Abstract
In user-pay public private partnership (PPP) projects, private sectors collect user fees to cover cost and reap revenue. For projects that cannot be self-financed, public sectors usually invest public funds to make them financially feasible. The concession agreement allocates revenues and risks, and lies in the center of balancing public and private interests. However, stakeholders may have contrary opinions regarding the optimization of concession agreement. While private sectors are concerned about earning money, public sectors pay more attention to the efficient use of public funds. To address this challenge, this paper firstly identifies several key concessionary items, including concession period, concession price, capital structure and government subsidy. Then, a multi-objective optimization model is presented using discounted cash flow method, in which key concessionary items act as decision variables and public and private interests are represented by two sub-objectives. Subsequently, the model is solved using non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II). Furthermore, a numerical case based on Beijing No. 4 Metro Line is provided to demonstrate the application of the model. Results show that the proposed model can produce a series of viable combinations of concessionary items that balance public and private interests, which provides practical references for relative decision making activities.
Keyword : concession agreement, multi-objective, optimization, non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II), user-pay, public-private partnership (PPP)
How to Cite
Feng, K., Wang, S., Li, N., Wu, C., & Xiong, W. (2018). Balancing public and private interests through optimization of concession agreement design for user-pay PPP projects. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 24(2), 116-129. https://doi.org/10.3846/jcem.2018.455
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Man, Q.; Sun, C.; Fei, Y.; Skitmore, M.; Bai, Y.; Lu, W. 2016. Government motivation-embedded return guarantee for urban infrastructure projects based on real options, Journal of Civil Engineering and Management 22(7): 954–966. https://doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2016.1204362
Marco, A. D.; Mangano, G.; Cagliano, A. C.; Grimaldi, S. 2012a. Public financing into build-operate-transfer hospital projects in Italy, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 138(11): 1294–1302. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000545
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Ranasinghe, M. 1996. Total project cost: a simplified model for decision makers, Construction Management and Economics 14(6): 497–505. https://doi.org/10.1080/014461996373205
Santandrea, M.; Sironi, A.; Grassi, L.; Giorgino, M. 2017. Concentration risk and internal rate of return: Evidence from the infrastructure equity market, International Journal of Project Management 35(3): 241–251. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2016.10.011
Shahrara, N.; Çelik, T.; Gandomi, A. H. 2017. Risk analysis of BOT contracts using soft computing, Journal of Civil Engineering and Management 23(2): 232–240. https://doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2015.1068844
Shan, L.; Garvin, M. J.; Kumar, R. 2010. Collar options to manage revenue risks in real toll public-private partnership transportation projects, Construction Management and Economics 28(10): 1057–1069. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2010.506645
Sharma, D.; Cui, Q.; Chen, L.; Lindly, J. 2010. Balancing private and public interests in public-private partnership contracts through optimization of equity capital structure, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2151: 60–66. https://doi.org/10.3141/2151-08
Shen, L. Y.; Li, H.; Li, Q. M. 2002. Alternative concession model for build operate transfer contract projects, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 128(4): 326–330. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2002)128:4(326)
Song, J.; Song, D.; Zhang, D. 2015. Modeling the concession period and subsidy for BOT waste-to-energy incineration projects, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 141(10): 04015033. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001005
Subprasom, K.; Chen, A. 2007. Effects of regulation on highway pricing and capacity choice of a build-operate-transfer scheme, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 133(1): 64–71. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2007)133:1(64)
Sundararajan, S. K.; Tseng, C. L. 2017. Managing project performance risks under uncertainty: Using a dynamic capital structure approach in infrastructure project financing, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 143(8): 04017046. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001341
Takashima, R.; Yagi, K.; Takamori, H. 2010. Government guarantees and risk sharing in public–private partnerships, Review of Financial Economics 19(2): 78–83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rfe.2009.10.001
Tan, Z.; Yang, H. 2012. Flexible build-operate-transfer contracts for road franchising under demand uncertainty, Transportation Research Part B: Methodological 46(10): 1419–1439. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2012.07.001
Teo, P.; Bridge, A. J. 2017. Crafting an efficient bundle of property rights to determine the suitability of a public private partnership: A new theoretical framework, International Journal of Project Management 35(3): 269–279. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2016.10.008
Thieriot, H.; Dominguez, C. 2015. Public-private partnerships in China. The International Institute for Sustainable Development.
Wibowo, A.; Kochendörfer, B. 2005. Financial risk analysis of project finance in Indonesian toll roads, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 131(9): 963–972. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2005)131:9(963)
Xinxin, J. 2016. Commercial banks shall contribute to the standardizing and facilitating of PPP projects [online], [cited 5 December 2017]. Available from Internet: http://www.financialnews.com.cn/llqy/201606/t20160620_98914.html
Xiong, W.; Zhang, X. 2014. Concession renegotiation models for projects developed through public-private partnerships, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 140(5): 04014008. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000843
Xu, Y.; Sun, C.; Skibniewski, M. J.; Chan, A. P.; Yeung, J. F.; Cheng, H. 2012. System Dynamics (SD)-based concession pricing model for PPP highway projects, International Journal of Project Management 30(2): 240–251. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2011.06.001
Yan, X.; Chong, H. Y.; Sheng, Z.; Wang, X. 2017. Financing decision model for toll roads: Balancing economic and public attributes, Journal of Management in Engineering 33(4): 04017010. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000523
Ye, S.; Tiong, R. L. K. 2003. The effect of concession period design on completion risk management of BOT projects, Construction Management and Economics 21(5): 471–482. https://doi.org/10.1080/0144619032000073488
Yuan, J.; Xu, W.; Xia, B.; Skibniewski, M. J. 2017. Exploring key indicators of residual value risks in China’s public–private partnership projects, Journal of Management in Engineering 34(1): 04017046. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000561
Zhang, H.; Jin, R.; Li, H.; Skibniewski, M. J. 2017. Pavement maintenance–focused decision analysis on concession periods of PPP highway projects, Journal of Management in Engineering 34(1): 04017047. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000568
Zhang, X. 2005. Financial viability analysis and capital structure optimization in privatized public infrastructure projects, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 131(6): 656–668. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2005)131:6(656)
Zhang, X.; Abourizk, S. M. 2006. Determining a reasonable concession period for private sector provision of public works and service, Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 33(5): 622–631. https://doi.org/10.1139/l06-010
Bakatjan, S.; Arikan, M.; Tiong, R. L. K. 2003. Optimal capital structure model for BOT power projects in Turkey, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 129(1): 89–97. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2003)129:1(89)
Boran, F. E.; Genç, S.; Kurt, M.; Akay, D. 2009. A multi-criteria intuitionistic fuzzy group decision making for supplier selection with TOPSIS method, Expert Systems with Applications 36(8): 11363–11368. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2009.03.039
Carbonara, N.; Costantino, N.; Pellegrino, R. 2014. Concession period for PPPs: A win–win model for a fair risk sharing, International Journal of Project Management 32(7): 1223–1232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2014.01.007
Chang, Z. 2013. Public–private partnerships in China: a case of the Beijing no. 4 metro line, Transport Policy 30(4): 153–160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2013.09.011
Cheah, C. Y.; Liu, J. 2006. Valuing governmental support in infrastructure projects as real options using Monte Carlo simulation, Construction Management and Economics 24(5): 545–554. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190500435572
Chen, B.; Liou, F.-M.; Huang, C.-P. 2013. Optimal financing mix of financially non-viable private participation investment project with initial subsidy, Engineering Economics 23(5): 452–461 https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.23.5.3130
Cheng, Z.; Ke, Y.; Lin, J.; Yang, Z.; Cai, J. 2016. Spatio-temporal dynamics of public private partnership projects in China, International Journal of Project Management 34(7): 1242–1251. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2016.05.006
Deb, B. K. 2000. A fast non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm for multiobjective optimization: NSGA-II, in 6th International Conference of the Computer Science, 18–20 September 2000, Paris, France.
Deb, K.; Agrawal, S.; Pratap, A.; Meyarivan, T. 2000. A fast elitist non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm for multi-objective optimization: NSGA-II, in Proceedings of International Conference on Parallel Problem Solving From Nature, 2000, Berlin, Germany, 849–858. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-45356-3_83
Eddy, J. 2001. Effective generation of Pareto sets using genetic programming, in ASME 2001 Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, 9–12 September 2001, Pittsburgh, United States.
Feng, K.; Xiong, W.; Wang, S.; Wu, C.; Xue, Y. 2017. Optimizing an equity capital structure model for public–private partnership projects involved with public funds, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 143(9): 04017067. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001349
García-Cascales, M. S.; Lamata, M. T. 2012. On rank reversal and TOPSIS method, Mathematical and Computer Modelling 56(5): 123–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2011.12.022
Goldberg, D. E. 1989. Genetic algorithms in search, optimization, and machine learning. Addison-Wesley Pub. Co.
Iossa, E. 2015. Contract and procurement design for PPPs in highways: the road ahead, Economia e Politica Industriale 42(3): 245–276. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40812-015-0014-5
Islam, M. M.; Mohamed, S. A. M. 2009. Bid-winning potential optimization for concession schemes with imprecise investment parameters, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 135(8): 690–700. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000032
Islam, M. M.; Mohamed, S. A. M.; Blumenstein, M. M. 2006. Towards an optimal financial investment decision in Build-Operate-Transfer projects using genetic algorithms, in Proceedings of Eleventh Joint International Conference on Computing and Decision Making in Civil and Building Engineering, 2006, Montreal, Canada, 14–16.
Iyer, K. C.; Sagheer, M. 2012. Optimization of bid-winning potential and capital structure for build-operate-transfer road projects in India, Journal of Management in Engineering 28(2): 104–113. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000071
Kakimoto, R.; Seneviratne, P. N. 2000. Financial risk of port infrastructure development, Journal of Waterway Port Coastal & Ocean Engineering 126(6): 281–287. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-950X(2000)126:6(281)
Khanzadi, M.; Eshtehardian, E.; Chalekaee, A. 2016. A game theory approach for optimum strategy of the owner and contractor in delayed projects, Journal of Civil Engineering and Management 22(8): 1066–1077. https://doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2016.1210222
Li, Z.; Hensher, D. A. 2010. Toll roads in Australia: an overview of characteristics and accuracy of demand forecasts, Transport Reviews 30(5): 541–569. https://doi.org/10.1080/01441640903211173
Liou, F. M.; Huang, C. P.; Chen, B. 2012. Modeling government subsidies and project risk for financially non-viable build-operate-transfer (BOT) projects, Engineering Management Journal 24(1): 58–64. https://doi.org/10.1080/10429247.2012.11431929
Man, Q.; Sun, C.; Fei, Y.; Skitmore, M.; Bai, Y.; Lu, W. 2016. Government motivation-embedded return guarantee for urban infrastructure projects based on real options, Journal of Civil Engineering and Management 22(7): 954–966. https://doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2016.1204362
Marco, A. D.; Mangano, G.; Cagliano, A. C.; Grimaldi, S. 2012a. Public financing into build-operate-transfer hospital projects in Italy, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 138(11): 1294–1302. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000545
Marco, A. D.; Mangano, G.; Zou, X. Y. 2012b. Factors influencing the equity share of build-operate-transfer projects, Built Environment Project and Asset Management 2(1): 70–85. https://doi.org/10.1108/20441241211235062
Ng, S. T.; Xie, J.; Cheung, Y. K.; Jefferies, M. 2007. A simulation model for optimizing the concession period of public–private partnerships schemes, International Journal of Project Management 25(8): 791–798. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2007.05.004
Qiao, L.; Wang, S. Q.; Tiong, R. L. K.; Chan, T. S. 2009. Framework for critical success factors of BOT projects in China, Journal of Structured Finance 7(1): 53–61. https://doi.org/10.3905/jsf.2001.320244
Ranasinghe, M. 1996. Total project cost: a simplified model for decision makers, Construction Management and Economics 14(6): 497–505. https://doi.org/10.1080/014461996373205
Santandrea, M.; Sironi, A.; Grassi, L.; Giorgino, M. 2017. Concentration risk and internal rate of return: Evidence from the infrastructure equity market, International Journal of Project Management 35(3): 241–251. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2016.10.011
Shahrara, N.; Çelik, T.; Gandomi, A. H. 2017. Risk analysis of BOT contracts using soft computing, Journal of Civil Engineering and Management 23(2): 232–240. https://doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2015.1068844
Shan, L.; Garvin, M. J.; Kumar, R. 2010. Collar options to manage revenue risks in real toll public-private partnership transportation projects, Construction Management and Economics 28(10): 1057–1069. https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2010.506645
Sharma, D.; Cui, Q.; Chen, L.; Lindly, J. 2010. Balancing private and public interests in public-private partnership contracts through optimization of equity capital structure, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2151: 60–66. https://doi.org/10.3141/2151-08
Shen, L. Y.; Li, H.; Li, Q. M. 2002. Alternative concession model for build operate transfer contract projects, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 128(4): 326–330. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2002)128:4(326)
Song, J.; Song, D.; Zhang, D. 2015. Modeling the concession period and subsidy for BOT waste-to-energy incineration projects, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 141(10): 04015033. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001005
Subprasom, K.; Chen, A. 2007. Effects of regulation on highway pricing and capacity choice of a build-operate-transfer scheme, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 133(1): 64–71. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2007)133:1(64)
Sundararajan, S. K.; Tseng, C. L. 2017. Managing project performance risks under uncertainty: Using a dynamic capital structure approach in infrastructure project financing, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 143(8): 04017046. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001341
Takashima, R.; Yagi, K.; Takamori, H. 2010. Government guarantees and risk sharing in public–private partnerships, Review of Financial Economics 19(2): 78–83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rfe.2009.10.001
Tan, Z.; Yang, H. 2012. Flexible build-operate-transfer contracts for road franchising under demand uncertainty, Transportation Research Part B: Methodological 46(10): 1419–1439. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2012.07.001
Teo, P.; Bridge, A. J. 2017. Crafting an efficient bundle of property rights to determine the suitability of a public private partnership: A new theoretical framework, International Journal of Project Management 35(3): 269–279. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2016.10.008
Thieriot, H.; Dominguez, C. 2015. Public-private partnerships in China. The International Institute for Sustainable Development.
Wibowo, A.; Kochendörfer, B. 2005. Financial risk analysis of project finance in Indonesian toll roads, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 131(9): 963–972. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2005)131:9(963)
Xinxin, J. 2016. Commercial banks shall contribute to the standardizing and facilitating of PPP projects [online], [cited 5 December 2017]. Available from Internet: http://www.financialnews.com.cn/llqy/201606/t20160620_98914.html
Xiong, W.; Zhang, X. 2014. Concession renegotiation models for projects developed through public-private partnerships, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 140(5): 04014008. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000843
Xu, Y.; Sun, C.; Skibniewski, M. J.; Chan, A. P.; Yeung, J. F.; Cheng, H. 2012. System Dynamics (SD)-based concession pricing model for PPP highway projects, International Journal of Project Management 30(2): 240–251. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2011.06.001
Yan, X.; Chong, H. Y.; Sheng, Z.; Wang, X. 2017. Financing decision model for toll roads: Balancing economic and public attributes, Journal of Management in Engineering 33(4): 04017010. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000523
Ye, S.; Tiong, R. L. K. 2003. The effect of concession period design on completion risk management of BOT projects, Construction Management and Economics 21(5): 471–482. https://doi.org/10.1080/0144619032000073488
Yuan, J.; Xu, W.; Xia, B.; Skibniewski, M. J. 2017. Exploring key indicators of residual value risks in China’s public–private partnership projects, Journal of Management in Engineering 34(1): 04017046. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000561
Zhang, H.; Jin, R.; Li, H.; Skibniewski, M. J. 2017. Pavement maintenance–focused decision analysis on concession periods of PPP highway projects, Journal of Management in Engineering 34(1): 04017047. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ME.1943-5479.0000568
Zhang, X. 2005. Financial viability analysis and capital structure optimization in privatized public infrastructure projects, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management 131(6): 656–668. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2005)131:6(656)
Zhang, X.; Abourizk, S. M. 2006. Determining a reasonable concession period for private sector provision of public works and service, Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 33(5): 622–631. https://doi.org/10.1139/l06-010