Using fuzzy analytic network process and ISM methods for risk assessment of public-private partnership: a China perspective
Abstract
The public-private partnership (PPP) has been adopted globally to meet intensifying demands for public facilities and services. However, PPP projects contain a variety of risks which may lead to project failure. Many researchers have explored risk factors associated with PPP projects in developing countries. However, these investigations have limited their aim to understanding risk impact without considering the interactions of these factors. Hence, to fill this gap, this study proposes a risk assessment method, addressing vital interrelationships and interdependencies. Two methodologies, fuzzy analytic network process (F-ANP) and interpretive structural modeling (ISM), were applied to avoid vagueness and data inaccuracies. The primary contributions of this paper were considering the relationships among risk factors and risk priority; and offering a risk analysis approach based on linguistic scales and fuzzy numbers to reflect different neutral, optimistic and pessimistic viewpoints from expert respondents’ judgments. Results from this analysis showed that legal and policy risk was the most influential and interdependent risk, and interest rate risk was the most essential risk in Chinese PPP projects. The ISM structure diagram demonstrated that most of 35 identified risk factors had high driving and dependence power. This study proposed a systematic and practical method to identify and assess PPP risk factors, utilizing an integrated approach consisting of F-ANP and ISM, which has not been used for risk assessment in the construction field. This paper provides a new risk assessment tool and a basis for risk management strategies in the construction engineering and management field.
Keyword : public-private partnership, fuzzy analytic network process (F-ANP), ), interpretive structural modeling (ISM), risk assessment
How to Cite
Li, Y., & Wang, X. (2019). Using fuzzy analytic network process and ISM methods for risk assessment of public-private partnership: a China perspective. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 25(2), 168-183. https://doi.org/10.3846/jcem.2019.8655
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
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Dou, Y., & Sarkis, J. (2010). A joint location and outsourcing sustainability analysis for a strategic off shoring decision. International Journal of Production Research, 48(2), 567-592. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207540903175145
Dou, Y., Zhu, Q., & Sarkis, J. (2014). Evaluating green supplier development programs with a grey-analytical network process-based methodology. European Journal of Operational Research, 233(2), 420-431. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2013.03.004
Dyer, R. F., & Forman, E. H. (1992). Group decision support with the analytic hierarchy process. Decision Support Systems, 8(2), 99-124. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-9236(92)90003-8
Ebrahimnejad, S., Mousavi, S. M., & Seyrafianpour, H. (2010). Risk identification and assessment for build-operate transfer projects: a fuzzy multi attribute decision making model. Expert Systems with Applications, 37(1), 575-586. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2009.05.037
Elbarkouky, M. M. G., MagdyAbouShady, A., & Marzouk, M. (2014). Fuzzy consensus qualitative risk analysis framework for real estate projects. International Journal of Architecture, Engineering and Construction, 3(3), 195-209. https://doi.org/10.7492/IJAEC.2014.016
European Commission. (2003). Guidelines for successful public-private partnerships. Retrieved from http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/guides/ppp_en.pdf
Fayek, A., Young, D. M., & Duffield, C. F. (1998). A survey of tendering practices in the Australian construction industry. Engineering Management Journal, 10(4), 29-34. https://doi.org/10.1080/10429247.1998.11415005
Feizi, F., Karbalaeiramezanali, A., & Mansouri, E. (2017). Calcic iron skarn prospectivity mapping based on fuzzy AHP method, a case study in Varan area, Markazi province, Iran. Geosciences Journal, 21(1), 123-136. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12303-016-0042-9
Govindan, K., Diabat, A., & Shankar, K. M. (2015). Analyzing the drivers of green manufacturing with fuzzy approach. Journal of Cleaner Production, 96(1), 182-193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.02.054
Govindan, K., Palaniappan, M., Zhu, Q., & Kannan, D. (2012). Analysis of third party reverse logistics provider using interpretive structural modeling. International Journal of Production Economics, 140(1), 204-211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2012.01.043
Govindan, K., Shankar, K. M., & Kannan, D. (2016). Application of fuzzy analytic network process for barrier evaluation in automotive parts re-manufacturing towards cleaner production-a study in an Indian scenario. Journal of Cleaner Production, 114, 199-213. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.06.092
Guneri, A. F., Cengiz, M., & Seker, S. (2009). A fuzzy ANP approach to shipyard location selection. Expert Systems with Applications, 36(4), 7992-7999. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2008.10.059
He, J. (2008). Financing risk evaluation model for hydropower projects based on multi-level dynamic fuzzy evaluation. Guangxi Water Conservancy and Hydropower, 2, 29-32 (in Chinese).
Horenbeek, A. V., & Pintelon, L. (2014). Development of a maintenance performance measurement framework-using the analytic network process (ANP) for maintenance performance indicator selection. Omega, 42(1), 33-46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2013.02.006
Jajarmizadeh, M., & Eslamloo, F. (2017). The effects of TQM practices on innovation using an ISM/Fuzzy-ANP approach. International Business Management, 11(3), 635-648.
Jharkharia, S., & Shankar, R. (2007). Selection of logistics service provider: an analytic network process (ANP) approach. Omega, 35(3), 274-289. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2005.06.005
Kahraman, C., Cebeci, U., & Ruan, D. (2004). Multi-attribute comparison of catering service companies using fuzzy AHP: The case of Turkey. International Journal of Production Economics, 87(2), 171-184. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0925-5273(03)00099-9
Kannan, D., Diabat, A., & Shankar, K. M. (2014). Analyzing the drivers of end-of-life tire management using interpretive structural modeling (ISM). International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 72(9–12), 1603-1614. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00170-014-5754-2
Kannan, G., & Haq, A. N. (2007). Analysis of interactions of criteria and sub-criteria for the selection of supplier in the built-in-order supply chain environment. International Journal of Production Research, 45(17), 3831-3852. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207540600676676
Karsak, E. E., Sozer, S., & Alpteki, S. E. (2003). Product planning in quality function deployment using a combined analytic network process and goal programming approach. Computers and Industrial Engineering, 44(1), 171-190. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0360-8352(02)00191-2
Ke, Y. J., Wang, S. Q., Chan, A. P. C., & Lam, P. T. I. (2010). Preferred risk allocation in China’s public-private partnership (PPP) projects. International Journal of Project Management, 28(5), 482–492. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2009.08.007
Kirchsteiger, C. (1999). On the use of probabilistic and deterministic methods in risk analysis. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 12(5), 399-419. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0950-4230(99)00012-1
Kumar, L., Jindal, A., & Velaga, N. R. (2018). Financial risk assessment and modelling of PPP based Indian highway infrastructure projects. Transport Policy, 61(2), 2-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2017.03.010
Li, B., Akintoye, A., Edwards, P. J., & Hardcastle, C. (2005). The allocation of risk in PPP/PFI construction projects in UK. International Journal of Project Management, 23(1), 25-35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2004.04.006
Li, F. W., Phoon, K. K., Du, X. L., & Zhang, M. J. (2013). Improved AHP method and its application in risk identification. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(3), 312-320. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000605
Li, J., & Zou, P. X. W. (2008). Risk identification and assessment in PPP infrastructure projects using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process and life-cycle methodology. Australian Journal of Construction Economics and Building, 8(1), 32-46. https://doi.org/10.5130/ajceb.v8i1.2996
Li, J., & Zou, P. X. W. (2011). Fuzzy AHP-based risk assessment methodology for PPP projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(12), 1205-1209. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000362
Liu, H., & Sun, H. (2018). PPP project financing risk analysis based on DEMATEL-ANP. Journal of Systems Science, 26(1), 131-135 (in Chinese).
Liu, Q. N., Wang, Y. W., Yao, M. L., & Li, J. (2017). Evolution and simulation of operational risk of PPP project based on system dynamics. Journal of Engineering Management, 31(5), 57-61 (in Chinese).
Liu, R. (2014). Urbanization rate 70% needs 50 trillion investments. Retrieved from http://news.cnfol.com/huiyihuodong/20140506/17783242.shtml
Lyons, T., & Skitmore, M. (2004). Project risk management in the Queensland engineering construction industry: a survey. International Journal of Project Management, 22(1), 51-61. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(03)00005-X
Mandal, A., & Deshmukh, S. G. (1994). Vendor selection using interpretive structural modelling (ISM). International Journal of Operations and Production Management, 14(6), 52-59. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443579410062086
McKinsey. (2013). China is expected to spend more than $16 trillion on infrastructure from 2013 to 2030. Retrieved from http://news.cnfol.com/130326/101,1277,14707166,00.shtml
Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China. (2018). The ministry of finance actively normalizes PPP mode and the number and investment funds of PPP projects continue to grow. Retrieved from http://www.chinappp.cn/News/NewsDetail/10267.html
Ng, A., & Loosemore, M. (2007). Risk allocation in the private provision of public infrastructure. International Journal of Project Management, 25(1), 66-76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2006.06.005
Nixon, J. D., Dey, P. K., Ghosh, S. K., & Davies, P. A. (2013). Evaluation of options for energy recovery from municipal solid waste in India using the hierarchical analytical network process. Energy, 59, 215-223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.06.052
Sadeghi, N., Fayek, A. R., & Pedrycz, W. (2010). Fuzzy Monte Carlo simulation and risk assessment in construction. Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 25(4), 238-252. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8667.2009.00632.x
Salah, A., & Moselhi, O. (2015). Contingency modelling for construction projects using fuzzy set theory. Engineering Construction and Architectural Management, 22(2), 214-241. https://doi.org/10.1108/ecam-03-2014-0039
Shaheen, A. A., Fayek, A. R., & AbouRizk, S. M. (2007). Fuzzy numbers in cost range estimating. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 133(4), 325-334. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2007)133:4(325)
She, L., & Tang, S. (2017). Research on the performance evaluation of the contract governance in the PPP mode based on AHP. In International Conference on Construction and Real Estate Management (pp. 309-317). Guangzhou, China. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784481059.032
Shen, L. Y., Platten, A., & Deng, X. P. (2006). Role of public-private partnerships to manage risks in public sector projects in Hong Kong. International Journal of Project Management, 24(7), 587-594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2006.07.006
Sipahi, S., & Timor, M. (2010). The analytic hierarchy process and analytic network process: an overview of applications. Management Decision, 48(5), 775-808. https://doi.org/10.1108/00251741011043920
Song, J., Song, D., Zhang, X., & Sun, Y. (2013). Risk identification for PPP waste-to-energy incineration projects in China. Energy Policy, 61(9), 953-962. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.041
Songer, A. D., Diekmann, J., & Pecsko, R. S. (1997). Risk analysis for revenue dependent infrastructure projects. Construction Management and Economics, 15(4), 377-382. https://doi.org/10.1080/014461997372935
Tazaki, E., & Amagasa, M. (1979). Structural modeling in a class of systems using fuzzy sets theory. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 2(1), 87-103. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-0114(79)90018-6
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