Gene expression programming approach to cost estimation formulation for utility projects

Abstract

This article utilizes gene expression programming (GEP) technique to develop a prediction model in order to automate estimating the construction cost of water and sewer replacement/rehabilitation projects. A database gathered for developing the model was established on the basis of data related to 210 actual water and sewer projects obtained from the City of San Diego, California, USA. To verify the predictability of the GEP model, it was examined to estimate the cost of the projects that were not included in the modelling process. Sensitivity analysis technique and professional experiences were employed to determine the contributions of the qualitative factors and quantifiable parameters affecting the cost estimate. The proposed model with correlation coefficient of 0.8467 is adequately capable of estimating the cost of water and sewer replacement/rehabilitation projects. The GEP-based design equation can easily be used for predesign purposes to help allocate budgets and available limited resources effectively.

Keyword : cost estimate, genetic programming, utility projects, water and sewer replacement/rehabilitation projects