International and regional capital mobility in Latin American countries
Abstract
This study examines the role of global, regional and domestic saving for domestic investment financing in the panel of Latin American and Caribbean countries along with its three regional integration blocks, namely SICA, Andean Community and MERCOSUR. Panel regression and rolling-window estimation results reveal that global saving is the main source of domestic investment financing in the region of Latin America and the Caribbean, SICA, Andean Community and MERCOSUR. The role of domestic and regional savings is rather limited, implying that there are weak regional and domestic channels that can funnel domestic and regional savings into investment in the analysed samples. The importance of regional agreement saving is insignificant and decreases over the analysed period except for the Andean Community. The results indicate low financial integration of the member-countries within the three regional trade agreements.
First published online 12 January 2022
Keyword : saving-investment association, regional integration, global saving, Feldstein-Horioka puzzle, capital mobility, cointegration analysis, panel estimation
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
References
Barari, M. (2004). Equity market integration in Latin America: A time-varying integration score analysis. International Review of Financial Analy-sis, 13(5), 649–668. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2004.02.019
Basnet, H., & Sharma, S. (2013). Economic integration in Latin America. Journal of Economic Integration, 28(4), 551–579. https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2013.28.4.551
Baxter, M., & Crucini, M. J. (1993). Explaining saving/investment correlations. American Economic Review, 83(3), 416–436.
Beck, K. (2019). What drives business cycle synchronization? BMA results from the European Union. Baltic Journal of Economics, 19(2), 248–275. https://doi.org/10.1080/1406099X.2019.1652393
Beck, K. (2020). Decoupling after the Crisis: Western and Eastern business cycles in the European Union. Eastern European Economics, 58(1), 68–82. https://doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2019.1656086
Beck, K. (2021). Capital mobility and the synchronization of business cycles: Evidence from the European Union. Review of International Eco-nomics, 29(4), 1065–1079. https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12536
Beck, K., & Stanek, P. (2019). Globalization or regionalization of stock markets? The case of Central and Eastern European countries. Eastern European Economics, 57(4), 317–330. https://doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2019.1610895
Boubakri, S., Couharde, C., & Guillaumin, C. (2012). Assessing the financial integration of Central and Eastern European countries with the euro area: Evidence from panel data cointegration tests. International Economics, 131, 105–120. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2110-7017(13)60056-6
Cavallo, E., & Pedemonte, M. (2016). The Relationship between National Saving and Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean. Economía, 16(2), 29–53. https://econpapers.repec.org/article/col000425/014409.htm
Chang, Y., & Smith, R. T. (2013). Feldstein–Horioka puzzles. European Economic Review, 72, 98–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2014.09.001
Chen, S., & Shen, C. (2015). Revisiting the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle with regime switching: New evidence from European countries. Economic Modelling, 49, 260–269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.03.020
Chortareas, G., Kapetanios, G., & Uctum, M. (2004). An investigation of current account solvency in Latin America using Non-Linear Non-stationarity Tests. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 8(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.2202/1558-3708.1200
Costantini, M., & Gutierrez, L. (2013). Capital mobility and global factor shocks. Economic Letters, 120(3), 513–515. https://doi.org/doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2013.06.008
Coudert, V., Herve, K., & Mabille, P. (2015). Internationalization versus regionalization in the emerging stock markets. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 20(1), 16–27. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1501
Dash, S. (2019). Has the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle waned? Evidence from time series and dynamic panel data analysis. Economic Modelling, 83, 256–269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.02.015
Dash, S. (2020). Are current account deficits sustainable? Evidence from dynamic panel data analysis. Journal of Quantitative Economics, 18, 799–823. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40953-020-00195-y
Di Iorio, F., & Fachin, S. (2014). Savings and investments in the OECD: A panel cointegration study with a new bootstrap test. Empirical Eco-nomics, 46(4), 1271–1300. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-013-0722-5
Donoso, V., & Martin, V. (2014). Current account sustainability in Latin America. The Journal of International Trade and Economic Develop-ment, 23(5), 735–753. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2013.775322
Dooley, M., Frankel, J., & Mathieson, D. (1987). International capital mobility: What do saving-investment correlations tell us? Staff Papers – International Monetary Fund, 34(3), 503–530. https://doi.org/10.2307/3867094
Drakos, A. A., Kouretas, G. P., & Vlamis, P. (2018). Saving, investment and capital mobility in EU member countries: A panel data analysis of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Applied Economics, 50(34–35), 3798–3811. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1436150
Drakos, A. A., Kouretas, G. P., Stavroyiannis, S., & Zarangas, L. (2017). Is the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle still with us? National saving-investment dynamics and international capital mobility: A panel data analysis across EU member countries. Journal of International Financial Markets, In-stitutions and Money, 47, 76–88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2016.11.006
Edison, H., Levine, R., Ricci, L., & Sløk, T. (2002). International financial integration and economic growth. Journal of International Money and Finance, 21(6), 749–776. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5606(02)00021-9
Feldstein, M. (1983). Domestic saving and international capital movements in the long run and the short run. European Economic Review, 21(1–2), 129–151. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0014-2921(83)80012-9
Feldstein, M. (1994). Tax policy and international capital flows. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 130(4), 675–697. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02707531
Feldstein, M., & Horioka, C. (1980). Domestic saving and international capital flows. Economic Journal, 90(358), 314–329. https://doi.org/10.2307/2231790
Georgopoulos, G., & Hejazi, W. (2009). The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle revisited: Is the home-bias much less? International Review of Economics and Finance, 18(2), 341–350. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2007.08.004
Giannone, D., & Lenza, M. (2009). The Feldstein–Horioka fact. NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, 6(1), 103–117. https://doi.org/10.1086/648699
Ginama, I., Hayakawa, K., & Kanmei, T. (2018). Examining the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle using common factor panels and interval estimation. Japan and the World Economy, 48, 11–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2018.06.001
Ginama, I., Hayakawa, K., & Kanmei, T. (2021). Transition of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 11(1), 123–151. https://doi.org/10.4236/jmf.2021.111006
Goldberg, C., & Delgado, F. (2001). Financial integration of emerging markets: An analysis of Latin America Versus South Asia using individual stocks. Multinational Finance Journal, 5(4), 259–301. https://doi.org/10.17578/5-4-2
Golub, S. (1990). International capital mobility: Net versus gross stocks and flows. Journal of International Money and Finance, 9(4), 424–439. https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-5606(90)90020-Z
Gordon, R., & Bovenberg, L. (1996). Why is capital so immobile internationally? Possible explanations and implications for capital income taxa-tion. American Economic Review, 86(5), 1057–1075.
Guillaumin, C. (2009). Financial integration in East Asia: Evidence from panel unit root and panel cointegration tests. Journal of Asian Economics, 20(3), 314–326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2009.02.002
Ho, T. (2003). The saving retention coefficient and country-size: The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle reconsidered. Journal of Macroeconomics, 25(3), 387–396. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0164-0704(03)00044-2
Ho, T., & Chiu, R. L. (2001). Country size and investment-saving correlation: A panel threshold error correction model. Eastern Economic Jour-nal, 27(4), 481–490.
Holmes, M. J. (2006). Do Latin American countries have an incentive to default on their external debts? A perspective based on long-run current account behavior. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 42(1), 33–49. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X420102
Holmes, M. J., & Otero, J. (2016). A pairwise-based approach to examining the Feldstein–Horioka condition of international capital mobility. Em-pirical Economics, 50(2), 279–297. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-015-0937-8
Im, K. S., Pesaran, H. M., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7
Jawadi, F., Million, N., & Arouri, M. E. (2009). Stock market integration in the Latin American markets: Further evidence from nonlinear model-ing. Economics Bulletin, 29(1), 162–168.
Kalyoncu, H., & Ozturk, I. (2010). Sustainability of current account for Latin America and Caribbean countries. Applied Economics Letters, 17(8), 781–785. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850802359937
Katsimi, M., & Zeoga, G. (2016). European integration and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 78(6), 834–852. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12130
Kaur, H., & Sarin, V. (2018). An evidence of Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in selected Asian economies. International Journal of Business and Glob-alisation, 21(4), 454–463. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJBG.2018.095761
Ketenci, N. (2010). The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle by groups of OECD members: The panel approach (MPRA Paper No. 25848).
Ketenci, N. (2012). The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle and structural breaks: Evidence from EU members. Economic Modelling, 29(2), 262–270. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2011.10.003
Ketenci, N. (2013). The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in groupings of OECD members: A panel approach. Research in Economics, 67(1), 76–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2012.09.002
Khan, S. (2017). The savings and investment relationship: The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle revisited. Journal of Policy Modeling, 39(2), 324–332. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2017.02.002
Kim, S., & Lee, J. W. (2008). Real and financial integration in East Asia (Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration No. 17). Asian Development Bank.
Kim, S., Kim, S., & Choi, Y. (2014). Financing investment in East Asia: Regional or global savings? Japan and the World Economy, 31, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2014.04.001
Kim, S., Kim, S., & Choi, Y. (2018). International capital mobility: Regional versus global perspective. Review of World Economics, 154(1), 157–176. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-017-0300-6
Kim, S., Kim, S. H., & Wang, Y. (2007). Saving, investment and international capital mobility in East Asia. Japan and the World Economy, 19(2), 279–291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2006.05.001
Kim, S., Kim, S., & Wang, Y. (2004). Regional versus global risk sharing in East Asia. Asian Economic Papers, 3(3), 182–201. https://doi.org/10.1162/1535351054825210
Kim, S., Lee, J. W., & Shin, K. (2006). Regional and global financial integration in East Asia (Discussion Paper Series 0602). Institute of Eco-nomic Research, Korea University.
Kumar, S. (2015). Regional integration, capital mobility and financial intermediation revisited: Application of general to specific method in panel data. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 36, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2015.02.008
Kumar, S., & Rao, B. B. (2011). A time-series approach to the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle with panel data from the OECD countries. The World Economy, 34(3), 473–485. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2010.01326.x
Mitra, R. (2017). Domestic saving-investment correlation puzzle revisited: A time series analysis for South Africa. Economics Bulletin, 37(2), 1217–1225.
Murphy, R. G. (1984). Capital mobility and the relationship between saving and investment in OECD countries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 3(3), 327–342. https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-5606(84)90017-2
Murthy, N. V. (2009). The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in Latin American and Caribbean countries: A panel cointegration analysis. Journal of Eco-nomics and Finance, 33(2), 176–188. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-008-9051-5
Murthy, V. N. R., & Ketenci, N. (2021). The Feldstein–Horioka hypothesis for African countries: Evidence from recent panel error-correction modelling. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 26(4), 5762–5774. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2092
Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979–1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
Ng, S., & Perron, P. (2001). Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power. Econometrica, 69(6), 1529–1554. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00256
Pata, U. K. (2018). The Feldstein Horioka puzzle in E7 Countries: Evidence from panel cointegration and asymmetric causality analysis. The Jour-nal of International Trade & Economic Development, 27(8), 968–984. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2018.1480053
Patra, S. K., & Mohanty, R. K. (2020). Does the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle exist among South Asian countries? A regime-switching approach. Journal of Public Affairs, 20(3), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2061
Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1997). Pooled estimation of long-run relationships in dynamic heterogeneous panel (DAE Working Papers Amalgamated Series 9721).
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statis-tical Association, 94(446), 621–634. https://doi.org/10.2307/2670182
Pesaran, M., & Smith, R. (1995). Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01644-f
Plakandaras, V., Gogas, P., & Papadimitriou, T. (2019). A re-evaluation of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in the Eurozone. Journal of Risk & Con-trol, 6(1), 19–35.
Raheem, I. D. (2017). More finance or better finance in Feldstein–Horioka puzzle: Evidence from SSA countries. Global Business Review, 18(1), 132–143. https://doi.org/10.1177/0972150916666912
Rao, B. B., Tamazian, A., & Kumar, S. (2010). Systems GMM estimates of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle for the OECD countries and tests for structural breaks. Economic Modelling, 27(5), 1269–1273. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.02.002
Rocha, F. (2009). Heterogeneity, saving-investment dynamics and capital mobility in Latin America. Empirical Economics, 36(3), 611–619. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-008-0215-0
Roubini, N. (1988). Current account and budget deficits in an intertemporal model of consumption and taxation smoothing: A solution to the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle? (NBER Working Paper No. 2773). https://doi.org/10.3386/w2773
Scandizzo, S. (2003). Options for monetary integration in the Andean Community. Revista Venezolana de Análisis de Coyuntura, 9(1), 65–105.
Stoykova, O. (2021). How to increase the value of bilateral trade? Currency union versus fixed exchange rate regime. Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, 9(2), 21–38. https://doi.org/10.15678/eber.2021.090202
Tursoy, T., & Faisal, F. (2019). Validity of FH hypothesis in small isolated Island economy: An application of the combined cointegration ap-proach. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, 26(4), 478–488. https://doi.org/10.1080/16081625.2017.1284597
Wang, M. (2013). An investigation of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Economies. The Australian Economic Review, 46(4), 424–443. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12037
Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69(6), 709–748. https://doi.org/doi:10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00477.x
Yilanci, V., & Kilci, E. N. (2021). The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle for the Next Eleven countries: A panel data analysis with Fourier functions. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 30(3), 341–364. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2021.1879901