How to measure protectionism in international trade in XXI century? The regional barometer of protectionism – case of Poland
Abstract
The purpose of the paper is to present a methodology for measuring contemporary protectionism – based on data from Poland. In light of the difficulties in assessing all trade barriers, an approximation was proposed: the regional barometer of protectionism (RBP). Recognizing that 21st century protectionism is observable only to a certain extent, the research is based on data that reflect the level of this phenomenon – i.e., media releases as well as Global Trade Alert data. In constructing this barometer, the TOPSIS method (a Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution) was used. The RBP constructed (for 2009–2020) is the first regional barometer of protectionism. The results of the research reveal the level and dynamics of protectionism in the case of Poland. This RBP improves the methodology of foreign trade analysis by providing a thorough basis for further research into both the effects and causes of protectionism; this paper presents initial explanations for the latter. Furthermore, after the barometer of protectionism is constructed, trade barriers may eventually be included in further research for models designed to explain Polish trade.
Keyword : international trade, trade policy, protectionism, tariffs, non-tariff measures, barometer
How to Cite
Piekutowska, A., & Konopka, P. (2023). How to measure protectionism in international trade in XXI century? The regional barometer of protectionism – case of Poland. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 29(3), 775–795. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18345
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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Behzadian, M., Otaghsara, S. K., Yazdani, M., & Ignatius, J. (2012). A state-of the-art survey of TOPSIS applications. Expert Systems with Applications, 39(17), 13051–13069. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2012.05.056
Bottani, E., & Rizzi, A. (2006). A fuzzy TOPSIS methodology to support outsourcing of logistics services. Supply Chain Management, 11(4), 294–308. https://doi.org/10.1108/13598540610671743
Bown, C. P. (2019). US-China trade war: The guns of August. Trade and Investment Policy Watch. https://doi.org/10.1080/17538963.2019.1608047
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De Melo, J., & Nicita, A. (2018). Non-tariff measures: Data and quantitative tools of analysis (FERDI Working Paper No. 218). Development Policies.
Dollar, D., & Kraay, A. (2004). Trade, growth, and poverty. The Economic Journal, 114(493), F22–F49. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0013-0133.2004.00186.x
Dooley, K., & Corman, S. (2004). Dynamic analysis of news streams: Institutional versus environmental effects. Nonlinear Dynamics, Psychology, and Life Sciences, 8(3), 259–284.
Evenett, S. J. (2019). Protectionism, state discrimination, and international business since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis. Journal of International Business Policy, 2(1), 9–36. https://doi.org/10.1057/s42214-019-00021-0
Fajgelbaum, P. D., Goldberg, P. K., Kennedy, P. J., & Khandelwal, A. K. (2020). The return to protectionism. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135(1), 1–55. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz036
Favero, G. (2007). Weather forecast or rain-dance? On inter-war business barometers (Department of Economics, University Ca’ Foscari of Venice Research Paper No. 14/WP/07). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1016001
Flak, O., & Głód, G. (2014). Barometr konkurencyjności przedsiębiorstw. Wyniki badań empirycznych. Przegląd Organizacji, 1, 12–17. https://doi.org/10.33141/po.2014.01.03
Fliess, B., & Busquets, C. (2006). The role of trade barriers in SME internationalisation (OECD Trade Policy Working Paper No. 45).
Frankel, J. A., & Romer, D. H. (1999). Does trade cause growth? American Economic Review, 89(3), 379–399. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.89.3.379
Gallup, G. (1955). The absorption rate of ideas. Public Opinion Quarterly, 19(3), 234–242. https://doi.org/10.1086/266568
Gałecka-Burdziak, E., & Pater, R. (2015). Ile jest wolnych miejsc pracy w Polsce? The Polish Journal of Economics, 279(5), 171–186. https://doi.org/10.33119/GN/100855
Global Trade Alert. (2022). https://www.globaltradealert.org/
Gunnella, V., & Quaglietti, L. (2019). The economic implications of rising protectionism: A euro area and global perspective. Economic Bulletin Articles, 3. European Central Bank. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2019/html/ecb.ebart201903_01~e589a502e5.en.html
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Hellwig, Z. (1968). Zastosowanie metody taksonomicznej do typologicznego podziału kraju ze względu na poziom rozwoju oraz zasoby i strukturę wykwalifikowanych kadr. Przegląd Statystyczny, 4, 307–326.
Henn, C., & McDonald, B. (2014). Crisis protectionism: The observed trade impact. IMF Economic Review, 62(1), 77–118. https://doi.org/10.1057/imfer.2014.4
Henriques, I., & Sadorsky, P. (1996). Export-led growth or growth-driven exports? The Canadian case. Canadian Journal of Economics, 29(3), 540–555. https://doi.org/10.2307/136249
Hu, C., Lin, F., Tan, Y., & Tang, Y. (2019). How exporting firms respond to technical barriers to trade? The World Economy, 42(5), 1400–1426. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12786
Hwang, C. L., & Yoon, K. (1981). Multiple attribute decision making: Methods and applications. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48318-9
International Labour Office. (1924). Economic barometers (Report submitted to the Economic Committee of the League of Nations). http://www.ilo.org/public/libdoc/ilo/ILO-SR/ILO-SR_N5_engl.pdf
Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. (2019). White paper on international economy and trade 2019. Part 2.1. (METI). https://www.meti.go.jp/english/report/data/wp2019/wp2019.html
Konopka, P. (2021). Metody wielokryterialnego podejmowania decyzji w badaniu ryzyka finansowania przedsiębiorstw. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu w Białymstoku.
Król, A., & Targaszewska, M. (2018). Zastosowanie zmiennych zastępczych w modelach hedonicznych. Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu, 507, 106–114. https://doi.org/10.15611/pn.2018.507.10
Krueger, A. O. (1980). Trade policy as an input to development. The American Economic Review, 70(2), 288–292.
Kutlina-Dimitrova, Z., & Lakatos, C. (2017). The global costs of protectionism (Policy Research Working Paper, No. 8277). World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-8277
Kutlina-Dimitrova, Z., & Lakatos, C. (2020). Workers are also consumers, and protectionism drives up costs for all consumers. In E. Doyle (Ed.), Tariffs and the future of trade (pp. 92–97). Greenhaven Publishing.
Lee, J. W., & Swagel, P. (1994). Trade barriers and trade flows across countries and industries (NBER Working Paper, 4799).
Lewandowska, A., Stopa, M., & Inglot-Brzęk, E. (2021). Innovativeness and entrepreneurship: Socioeconomic remarks on regional development in peripheral regions. Economics & Sociology, 14(2), 222–235. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-789X.2021/14-2/12
Looi Kee, H., Nicita, A., & Olarreaga, M. (2009). Estimating trade restrictiveness indices. The Economic Journal, 119(534), 172–199. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2008.02209.x
Looi Kee, H., Neagu, C., & Nicita, A. (2013). Is protectionism on the rise? Assessing national trade policies during the crisis of 2008. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(1), 342–346. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00241
Mahmoodzadeh, S., Shahrabi, J., Pariazar, M., & Zaeri, M. S. (2007). Project selection by using fuzzy AHP and TOPSIS technique. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology International Journal of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, 1(6), 270–275.
Mladenović, J., Lepojević, V., & Janković-Milić, V. (2016). Modelling and prognosis of the export of the Republic of Serbia by using seasonal Holt-Winters and ARIMA method. Economic Themes, 54(2), 233–260. https://doi.org/10.1515/ethemes-2016-0012
Nakuja, T., & Kerr, W. A. (2013). Protectionism or legitimate regulations: What can trade partners expect from the new US food safety regime? (Commissioned Paper, 165920). Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network, 4, 1–19.
Niu, Z., Liu, C., Gunessee, S., & Milner, C. (2018). Non-tariff and overall protection: Evidence across countries and over time. Review of World Economics, 154(4), 675–703. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-018-0317-5
Nowak, J., & Pankiv, L. (2018). Zmiany na rynku pracy a efektywność kształcenia w Polsce. Zeszyty Naukowe Politechniki Śląskiej. Seria: Organizacja i Zarządzanie, 123, 313–323.
Piekutowska, A., & Marcinkiewicz, J. (2020). Protectionism in International Trade: The case of the European Union member states. European Research Studies Journal, 23(2), 728–740. https://doi.org/10.35808/ersj/1618
Pomichowski, P., & Parlinska, M. (2018). Analiza handlu międzynarodowego Polski z krajami sąsiadującymi z zastosowaniem modelu grawitacyjnego. Roczniki Naukowe Stowarzyszenia Ekonomistów Rolnictwa i Agrobiznesu, 20(5), 174–178. https://doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0012.6704
Puślecki, Z. W. (2022). Increase of protectionism between USA and China and modern international business. SunText Review of Economics and Business, 3(3), 163. https://doi.org/10.51737/2766-4775.2022.063
Roszkowska, E., Brzostowski, J., & Wachowicz, T. (2013). Szacowanie wag zagadnień negocjacyjnych na podstawie metod wielokryterialnych. In W. Sikora (Ed.), Metody i zastosowania badań operacyjnych w gospodarce, finansach i szkolnictwie wyższym (pp. 209–227). Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu.
Rutkowski, J. (1971). Podstawowe metody regulowania współczesnej gospodarki kapitalistycznej. Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny, 33(1), 205–221.
Sarason, S. B. (2000). Barometers of community change. In J. Rappaport & E. Seidman (Eds.), Handbook of community psychology (pp. 919–929). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-4193-6_37
Semeniuk, P. (2019). Economic protectionism in the European Union. Polish Economic Institute.
Skrzywan, W. (1928). Barometry gospodarcze. Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny, 8(3), 298–310.
Sporek, T., Czech, A., Fronczek, M., & Kos-Łabędowicz J. (2019). Pomiędzy polityką a ideologią – globalne wyzwania współczesnej gospodarki światowej. Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach.
Sykes, A. O. (1999). Regulatory protectionism and the law of international trade. The University of Chicago Law Review, 66(1), 1–46. https://doi.org/10.2307/1600385
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